Finally, it may just happen! It could be that in 1989, the science of animal genetics and the cow sense of the most discriminating dairy cattle breeders will be amalgamated into genetic indexes for sires and cows, for both production and type that will work and work well! These new indexes have the promise of incorporating all the facts on the cow, including her relatives, both in the same herd and in other herds, into a more accurate "cow family" genetic evaluation than ever available before. Let's look at these indexes closely and attempt to understand how to use them effectively.

1. When do the Animal Model proofs and indexes become available? February 1989 for Type; August 1989 for Production.

2. What traits are used in rating sires and cows? For Type? The latest classification on each cow. For Production? All lactations. Two major outcomes will result from these changes. First, sires will be ranked on the basis of all lactations of their daughters. Secondly, for breeds other than Holstein, the latest classification of each cow will be used to rank hr sire, and to provide cow indexes for type. Until now, sires of these breeds have been ranked based on first lactation, first classifications of their daughters. Latest classifications will continue to be used in Holstein evaluations. Most breeders will applaud these decisions, particularly the use of all records in sire evaluation for production, since many have considered first lactation rankings a less than perfect indicator of lifetime production.

3. How does the Animal Model differ from the Sire Model? The two models are very similar. However, the Animal Model attempts to rank sires and cows simultaneously for genetic merit by adjusting equations for management -- environmental factors (like herds, rounds of classification and classifier), and solving for the genetic merit of each animal classified or milk-recorded. Type records are preadjusted for the cow's age, parity and stage of lactation before being put into the equations. Cow and sire equations are analyzed simultaneously and therefore sires' rating are adjusted for any non-random mating and are more accurate, as a consequence.

4. What other advantages exist for the Animal Model? It considers all relatives in ranking cows and sires. It appropriately adjusts for the effects of selection of mates in ranking sires. It uses all lactations. It makes cow and sire genetic indexes available as a routine every six months. Cow indexes for type are provided for the first time.

5. Do Sire and Animal Models rank sires similarly? Yes. For type, the correlations between sire ratings (by the Sire Model) and February 1989 official Animal Model ratings on the same bulls (using the same data) were +.97. This is very close to +1.0, which would be the correlations if sires ranked exactly the same.

6. How will this new information help us to breed better cattle? Most importantly, the new indexes are more accurate than before. They are based on all relatives' information, appropriately weighted for heritability of the trait, how high the relationship is between the animal in question and the animal being indexes, and finally, the amount of information available.

   For Production. Genetic indexes will receive much greater emphasis in pedigrees, in sales and in advertising than before. Indexes predict the transmitting ability of the cow or sire. In breeding decisions, the transmitting ability is of much greater importance than the animal's own performance. Genetic indexes will also be used rather than the cow's own records in computer mating systems, since they incorporate the cow's own records, appropriately weighting them in relation to the other information available.

   For Type. The practice of selecting only cows classified Excellent or Very Good as bull dams will be abandoned in favour of planned matings of cows with the highest type indexes, including high scoring Good Plus 2, 3 and 4-year-olds with high ETA's for production and type! This will shorten the generation intervals, focus on transmitting ability of the cow for type rather than her appearance, and tend to discount Very Good or Excellent cows with no cow family around them in favour of Good Plus younger cows with outstanding ancestors and close relatives for conformation. Table 1 illustrates the relative accuracy of the cow's own score for final class versus her genetic index in predicting future indexes of sons or daughters. A 21% increase in accuracy occurs by including the information on relatives in the genetic index of the dam, rather than her own score.

   Table 1. Accuracy of Pedigree Indexes in Prediction of Future Indexes of Heifers or Proofs of Young Bulls
   Trait Predicted	Dam Information	Sire Information	Amount of Variation Explained
   Future Type Index of Heifers or Bulls	-.54 (Dam's Genetic Index)	+.71 (Sire's Proof)	88%
   Future Type Index of Heifers or Bulls	-.283 (Dam's Type Score)	+.75 (Sire's Proof)	67%
   	Advantage in Accuracy of Dam's Index		21%

Now for a few topical questions and comments!

1. Are pedigree procedures due for an overhaul in Canada? Yes, in our view! First, these new genetic indexes on each sire (i.e. proof) and cow must be available in bold print for both type and production. What good is a record of ancestry without the most important information available? Let's get rid of the filler and get down to facts! As a postscript, it's high time only the most recent sire proofs were printed, as well. It's interesting to note that Jersey breeders have had genetic indexes for production for four years, and they seem to be prospering!!

   Table 2. Relationship Between Holstein Sire Proofs for Type and Production
   	Milk (1)	Fat (1)	Protein (2)
   Final Class	-0.05	0.02	-0.02
   General Appearance	-0.07	0.00	-0.04
   Dairy Character	0.59	0.58	0.60
   Body Capacity	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03
   Rump	-0.16	-0.13	-0.16
   Feet and Legs	-0.01	0.01	0.03
   Mammary System	-0.07	0.02	-0.03
   Fore Udder	-0.16	-0.08	-0.14
   Rear Udder	0.02	0.10	0.07
   Stature	0.01	0.01	0.03
   Size	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
   Style	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05
   Angularity	0.47	0.48	0.49

2. What is the relationship between type and production -- say for fore udders, mammary system and final class? We examined this recently using the new type and production sire proofs. They really tell us how the traits are related genetically. Table 2 sets out these correlations for the major scorecard traits and production traits. Note many negative correlations between milk, fat and protein yields and final class, body capacity, style, and in particular, fore udder and mammary system. Does this say high milk sires tend to have cattle that are slimmer, and more bulgy in fore attachments, in particular?

   Clearly, our type classification programs are discriminating against high milk, or high milk and the ideal fore udder attachment are antagonistic. Perhaps we must remember that the median suspensory ligament is the key attachment for the cow's udder, and begin to be more lenient with the heavy milking 2-year-old especially in early lactation.

   What about emphasis on type and production in the future? The October "Strategies '88" meeting in Banff, Alberta, called for "leading emphasis on production, followed by those traits contributing to longevity and/or profitability in the dairy cow". Reading the Holstein Journal since October 1988 has provided clear evidence of a substantial gap in opinions among Holstein breeders. Young breeders with mortgages to pay down would be well advised to make up their own minds on this issue, by asking "What sort of females are bringing the most money in headliner sales? What sort of cows are becoming bull dams of the future? What sort of proven sires see most extensive use both in Canada and overseas?"